Jennbridge: Losing Trick Count Update

I hope you have enjoyed the series of six articles on Losing Trick Count published in the Bridge Bulletin from Dec. 2011 until May, 2012.  Thanks for all of your comments and questions, many of which have been reprinted here. In addition to the Bridge Bulletin articles and the Losing Trick Count booklet (for sale on this site), I am continuing to write about this subject which is so important for accurate hand evaluation.  I have collected some great hands and continue to find useful ways to use Losing Trick Count.

If you would like to be notified when new LTC publications or material is available, please let me know by sending an email to:  Jennife574@aol.com.  Feel free to include a message or merely put "LTC updates" in the subject line of your email and you'll be added to the mailing list.

Some have already purchased the LTC Teacher package so that you can teach a seminar to your own students.  For information on teacher packages please contact me.  If you'd like to attend a seminar on Losing Trick Count in your area, be sure to let your bridge teacher know about the teacher package and have them contact me.

I'll continue to answer questions and post comments on this blog site and I'd like to hear from you.  I'm interested in your LTC success stories and will attempt to provide analysis when you come across hands where the formula doesn't seem to work.

See you at the table!

Jennbridge: A Defensive Story

This hand is from a pair game yesterday. (board 14)

♠87532
♥A
♦ K1086
♣1086

You hold this hand and hear this bidding:  1♣ on your right, 1♥ on your left, 2♥ on your right and 4♥ on your left.  Partner leads the A♦ and you see this dummy:

Club pair game

Board 14 West Deals None Vul	N W E S	♠ A J 9 4 ♥ J 10 7 4 ♦ — ♣ K Q 7 4 3
	♠ 8 7 5 3 2 ♥ A ♦ K 10 8 6 ♣ 10 8 6

Declarer ruffs the diamond lead as you give an encouraging attitude signal. Declarer then leads the K♣ off the board and discards a diamond as your partner wins the A♣.  Partner continues diamonds and declarer ruffs.  Declarer pitches the Q♦ on the Q♣. These cards remain as a heart is led from the board.

Club pair game

Board 14 West Deals None Vul	N W E S	♠ A J 9 4 ♥ J 10 ♦ — ♣ 7 4 3
	♠ 8 7 5 3 2 ♥ A ♦ K 10 ♣ 10

You win the A♥ and pause to think about the play.  What should you play next?

*************************

Have you attempted to count the hand?  Counting the hand will usually guide you to the correct play.  Try it now.

*************************

Declarer started with no clubs and at least 4 hearts. You have seen 4 diamonds played already.

How many spades does she have?  She couldn't have 5, or she would have responded 1♠ over 1♣. Therefore she has at most 4.  If she is 4-4 in the majors, she would have 5 diamonds.  You decide that her hand likely contains 5 hearts and 4 diamonds, which means that she has 4 spades.  It is also possible that she has 6 hearts. That would give her 3 spades.

As you ponder all this, one thing is abundantly clear:  Partner is extremely short in spades--either one or none. Any other clues?

Yes!  If partner had a singleton spade she would have undoubtedly led it rather than laying down an unsupported ace--generally an unattractive lead.  It is possible she could have a singleton honor that she didn't want to lead, but in that case, it would have no value, sitting in front of dummy's good spade holding.

Your decision made, you return a spade.

Declarer follows and partner RUFFS!

Club pair game

Board 14 West Deals None Vul	♠ — ♥ 5 3 2 ♦ A J 5 3 2 ♣ A J 9 5 2
♠ K Q 10 6 ♥ K Q 9 8 6 ♦ Q 9 7 4 ♣ —	N W E S	♠ A J 9 4 ♥ J 10 7 4 ♦ — ♣ K Q 7 4 3
	♠ 8 7 5 3 2 ♥ A ♦ K 10 8 6 ♣ 10 8 6

Declarer scores up her 420 and partner gives you a little smile of appreciation.  Your effort at counting the hand paid off--you got a top!

See you at the table!

Jennbridge: More on LTC

Thanks, readers, for your questions and comments regarding Losing Trick Count.  I'll answer a question and then describe a hand from last night.

Good afternoon, Jennifer!
My wife and I are upgrading our game using LTC, after a suggestion made by one of our better opponents.  After even a short amount of time, we have been able to improve our bidding precision, and arrive at good contracts which make while not missing out on game contracts that we should have bid.  Thanks for that! 


We have read the first 5 articles in the series in the ACBL Bridge Bulletin.  Thanks for this wealth of information.  In the 5th, under the subtitle "Responding", you mention that LTC loses accuracy with 6-2 fits.  We have been very successful with 5-4 fits, but these are not as common as 5-3 fits.  Therefore, my question:
How does LTC fare with the common, garden variety 5-3 fit that we so often see?


Regards, Bob


Dear Bob:  Thanks for the message.  LTC works fine with 5-3 fits.  Here is a good example.      I held this hand last night in a team game.


♠ J 
♥ J97xx
♦  Ax 
♣ QJ9xx


Vulnerable vs. not, my partner opened 1♣ and I responded 1♥.  LHO chimed in 
with a 1♠ bid and my  partner made a support double, showing 3-card heart 
support.  RHO bid 2♠ and I studied my hand. 


What would you bid?
*****************


The first feature I noticed was that I had a 7-loser hand, which meant that it would
be likely to make game opposite a minimum opener.  I then considered the 
vulnerability--you must be aggressive at teams.  The paucity of HCP--8, if you 
disregard the jack of spades, might give one pause, but the double fit (clubs and 
hearts) more than made up for it.  I jumped to 4♥ rather confidently.


A spade was led and the dummy was suitable:
♠ xxx 
♥ AQx
♦  xxx 
♣ AK108


♠ J 
♥ J97xx 
♦  Ax 
♣ QJ9xx


I ruffed the second spade and led a heart to the queen which held.  The king tumbled 
down under the ace and the hand was essentially over.  I drew the last trump, ran the 
clubs, and gave up a diamond--making 5.


I was a little surprised to win 12 IMPs.  It turns out that my counterpart (a good player 
who consistently uses LTC) also bid 4♥ but our teammates bid on to 4♠ and got out 
for down one.

All in all, I liked this hand.  It is a good example of how LTC works with 5-3 fits and 

also a good example of how using LTC can help you bid an excellent 22-point game.  

For anyone worried about the lack of high card points, the vulnerability and double fit 

strongly tip the balance toward bidding the game.

See you at the table!

Jennbridge: Slamming in the IMP Pairs

Double-digit scores in your column are highly coveted prizes in IMP pairs.  Everything went our way in the first qualifying session of the Lebhar IMP Pairs at the NABC in Memphis.  We had 5 scores in the double-digits and a huge session which lifted us to third in the field after the first day.  Here is a hand from that session: (Board 9--hand rotated for convenience.)

♠J2
♥QJ4
♦ Q7643
♣KQ5

♠AK9754
♥AK853
♦ A
♣ 7

I opened 1♠ and jump shifted in hearts.  After a heart raise, I bid Blackwood and settled in 6♥.  Both the play and bidding were unremarkable.  After a diamond lead I drew 2 rounds of trumps and ruffed a spade high.  Spades broke 3-2 and I scored up 1430.  What was remarkable was that we won 11 imps for our effort. Perhaps some pairs played in their 8-card spade fit instead of their (better) 8-card heart fit.  In spades, you have to lose a spade as well as a club.

Our fortunes were reversed the next afternoon, however, as few of our games made and our opponents couldn't do anything wrong.  We only had one double-digit gain from the session, but it was an interesting hand. (Bd. 5, 1st Final--hands rotated.)

IMP Pairs 1st Final

Board 5 East Deals None Vul	♠ A 8 ♥ 9 8 4 2 ♦ A J 7 6 ♣ A 7 4
♠ 4 ♥ A 10 3 ♦ 9 8 4 3 2 ♣ Q 10 9 2	N W E S	♠ 10 7 3 2 ♥ K Q J 6 5 ♦ Q 10 ♣ J 3
	♠ K Q J 9 6 5 ♥ 7 ♦ K 5 ♣ K 8 6 5

6 ♠ by South

After a 2♥ opening bid on my right, I overcalled 2♠ and we landed in 6♠.  I rufffed the second heart and pondered the play.  It looked like I had additional losers.  Even if the diamond finesse worked I still had a club loser.  I had to look for a squeeze.

As I ran off 5 spades, West couldn't stand the pressure.  Here were the last few cards:

Board 5 East Deals None Vul	♠ ♥ 9 ♦ A J 7 ♣ 7
♠ ♥ ♦ 9 8 4 ♣ Q 10	N W E S	♠ ♥ K Q 6 ♦ Q ♣ J
	♠ 6 ♥ ♦ 5 ♣ K 8 6

As I played the last spade, West apparently decided to keep diamond parity with dummy and pitched a club--game over.  It's true that West was squeezed, but she didn't know I had a guess to make.  If I play a diamond to the ace, dropping the queen, then my diamonds will run if she pitches one.  I'm sure glad the clubs ran instead and I wasn't faced with the diamond guess!

See you at the table!